Qualification · Qualification 5

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

100.71 – 306.17

7%93%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

116 – 338

Prediction correct · off by 23.6 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 156.1 ±22

9026Aero

Provisional

Season APEX 55.4Event APEX 32.62Rank 28Record 3-6-0Status provisionalConfidence 71

10947Antioch Rising

Provisional

Season APEX 40.8Event APEX 39.06Rank 30Record 3-6-0Status provisionalConfidence 74

5655KelRot

Provisional

Season APEX 59.9Event APEX 29.03Rank 33Record 3-6-0Status provisionalConfidence 71

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 532.8 ±11.1

8806Our Lady of Providence Dream League

Season APEX 121.4Event APEX 100.84Rank 8Record 6-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5665FENERBAHÇE DOGUS SPARC

Season APEX 148.2Event APEX 62Rank 20Record 4-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

8595This Is How We Play

Season APEX 263.2Event APEX 143.33Rank 3Record 8-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 9026, 10947, 5655

/ 100 compat

Projected

100.7 pts

~0.6 RP (regional)

Teams: 9026, 10947, 5655

Auto

8.0 8%

Teleop

58.3 58%

Endgame

34.1 34%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 43%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 8806, 5665, 8595

/ 100 compat

Projected

306.2 pts

~2.5 RP (regional)

Teams: 8806, 5665, 8595

Auto

59.6 20%

Teleop

175.6 58%

Endgame

66.9 22%

Strengths

· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 43%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 0.63 · Blue 2.45

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score100.7pts

Blue projected score306.2pts

Red win probability7%

Event bonus sample162alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 43%, blue 51%

Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 6%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -205.5
Score range: 69–338
Upset likelihood: 7%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 454 vs event baseline 175.3.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

156.1Season APEX532.8

8Auto59.6

58.3Teleop175.6

34.1Endgame66.9

32Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	6	54
teleop	65	208
endgame	40	76
foul	5	0
total	116	338

Result

Final score

116 – 338

Prediction correct · off by 23.6 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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