Qualification · Qualification 49

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

28.45 – 171.73

14%86%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

71 – 199

Prediction correct · off by 34.9 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 150 ±20.5

10185Nexify Robotics

Provisional

Season APEX 58.4Event APEX -6.67Rank 31Record 4-5-0Status provisionalConfidence 71

7086IOROBOT

Provisional

Season APEX 18.3Event APEX 9.86Rank 41Record 3-6-0Status provisionalConfidence 71

9043Valkyrie

Season APEX 73.3Event APEX 25.26Rank 11Record 5-4-0Status establishedConfidence 89

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 339.1 ±15.2

9025Mechameleons

Season APEX 132.2Event APEX 75.39Rank 6Record 8-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

11240Rotatech

Provisional

Season APEX 58.7Event APEX 35.5Rank 29Record 3-6-0Status provisionalConfidence 71

5665FENERBAHÇE DOGUS SPARC

Season APEX 148.2Event APEX 60.84Rank 20Record 4-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 10185, 7086, 9043

/ 100 compat

Projected

28.5 pts

~0.7 RP (regional)

Teams: 10185, 7086, 9043

Auto

18.2 93%

Teleop

-3.6 0%

Endgame

5.0 26%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 31%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 9025, 11240, 5665

/ 100 compat

Projected

171.7 pts

~2.2 RP (regional)

Teams: 9025, 11240, 5665

Auto

43.0 25%

Teleop

87.7 51%

Endgame

42.4 24%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 31%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 0.65 · Blue 2.18

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score28.5pts

Blue projected score171.7pts

Red win probability14%

Event bonus sample162alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 31%, blue 43%

Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -143.3
Score range: 1–199
Upset likelihood: 14%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 270 vs event baseline 149.8.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

150Season APEX339.1

18.2Auto43

-3.6Teleop87.7

5Endgame42.4

106Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	10	36
teleop	28	137
endgame	23	21
foul	10	5
total	71	199

Result

Final score

71 – 199

Prediction correct · off by 34.9 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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