Qualification · Qualification 48

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

12.31 – 395.19

2%98%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

59 – 432

Prediction correct · off by 41.8 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 134.8 ±19.4

10598TADroid

Season APEX 58Event APEX -10.37Rank 35Record 3-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

10205MAGNETAR

Provisional

Season APEX 36Event APEX 10.25Rank 38Record 3-6-0Status provisionalConfidence 71

10947Antioch Rising

Provisional

Season APEX 40.8Event APEX 12.43Rank 30Record 3-6-0Status provisionalConfidence 74

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 550.5 ±12.2

11216FLAZIA ROBOTICS

Season APEX 206.4Event APEX 178.78Rank 4Record 7-2-0Status establishedConfidence 97

10502HARPIA ROBOTICS

Season APEX 65.7Event APEX 17.91Rank 34Record 3-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

10131Royal Turtles

Season APEX 278.4Event APEX 198.5Rank 2Record 8-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 10598, 10205, 10947

/ 100 compat

Projected

12.3 pts

~0.4 RP (regional)

Teams: 10598, 10205, 10947

Auto

-4.9 0%

Teleop

10.7 45%

Endgame

18.1 76%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 32%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 11216, 10502, 10131

/ 100 compat

Projected

395.2 pts

~2.6 RP (regional)

Teams: 11216, 10502, 10131

Auto

48.0 12%

Teleop

252.2 64%

Endgame

95.4 24%

Strengths

· 10131 anchors offense
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 32%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 0.4 · Blue 2.56

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score12.3pts

Blue projected score395.2pts

Red win probability2%

Event bonus sample162alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 32%, blue 44%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 15%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -382.9
Score range: -15–422
Upset likelihood: 2%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 491 vs event baseline 147.8.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

134.8Season APEX550.5

-4.9Auto48

10.7Teleop252.2

18.1Endgame95.4

97Consistency21

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	23	57
teleop	15	276
endgame	11	99
foul	10	0
total	59	432

Result

Final score

59 – 432

Prediction correct · off by 41.8 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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