Qualification · Qualification 46

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

110.48 – 95.4

55%45%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

41 – 74

Prediction missed · off by 45.4 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 182 ±19.8

9020MCT Galatasaray Robotics

Season APEX 75.7Event APEX 16.92Rank 42Record 2-7-0Status establishedConfidence 86

9026Aero

Provisional

Season APEX 55.4Event APEX 53.32Rank 28Record 3-6-0Status provisionalConfidence 71

9028GFORCE

Provisional

Season APEX 50.9Event APEX 40.24Rank 39Record 2-7-0Status provisionalConfidence 74

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 189.8 ±19.4

5655KelRot

Provisional

Season APEX 59.9Event APEX 34.21Rank 33Record 3-6-0Status provisionalConfidence 71

11120Frostbite Robotics

Provisional

Season APEX 70.7Event APEX 35.81Rank 10Record 6-3-0Status provisionalConfidence 74

7742Cosmos Robot Works

Season APEX 59.2Event APEX 25.38Rank 12Record 6-3-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 9020, 9026, 9028

/ 100 compat

Projected

110.5 pts

~1.5 RP (regional)

Teams: 9020, 9026, 9028

Auto

23.4 23%

Teleop

40.2 40%

Endgame

36.2 36%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 40%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 5655, 11120, 7742

/ 100 compat

Projected

95.4 pts

~1.4 RP (regional)

Teams: 5655, 11120, 7742

Auto

24.5 29%

Teleop

50.0 59%

Endgame

10.4 12%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 40%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 1.53 · Blue 1.35

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score110.5pts

Blue projected score95.4pts

Red win probability55%

Event bonus sample162alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 40%, blue 39%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 3%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 15.1
Score range: 68–137
Upset likelihood: 45%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 115 vs event baseline 151.4.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

182Season APEX189.8

23.4Auto24.5

40.2Teleop50

36.2Endgame10.4

52Consistency35

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	18	12
teleop	3	32
endgame	20	30
foul	0	0
total	41	74

Result

Final score

41 – 74

Prediction missed · off by 45.4 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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