Qualification · Qualification 44

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

352.13 – 89.49

96%4%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

255 – 40

Prediction correct · off by 73.3 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 568.8 ±14.4

8159Golden Horn

Season APEX 278.3Event APEX 171.71Rank 5Record 7-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

8595This Is How We Play

Season APEX 263.2Event APEX 177.26Rank 3Record 8-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

6038ITOBOT

Season APEX 27.3Event APEX 3.16Rank 18Record 4-5-0Status establishedConfidence 76

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 215.6 ±14.5

8056Laissez Faire

Season APEX 67.5Event APEX 27.15Rank 40Record 2-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

11000NEOCHIRON

Season APEX 99.5Event APEX 42.15Rank 17Record 5-4-0Status establishedConfidence 97

10383Robistim

Season APEX 48.6Event APEX 20.19Rank 32Record 3-6-0Status establishedConfidence 91

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 8159, 8595, 6038

/ 100 compat

Projected

352.1 pts

~2.5 RP (regional)

Teams: 8159, 8595, 6038

Auto

77.0 23%

Teleop

206.3 61%

Endgame

56.3 17%

Strengths

· 8595 anchors offense
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 52%

Supercharged: 7%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 8056, 11000, 10383

/ 100 compat

Projected

89.5 pts

~0.5 RP (regional)

Teams: 8056, 11000, 10383

Auto

10.5 13%

Teleop

48.0 60%

Endgame

21.9 27%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 52%

Supercharged: 7%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 2.54 · Blue 0.48

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score352.1pts

Blue projected score89.5pts

Red win probability96%

Event bonus sample162alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 52%, blue 36%

Supercharged bonusred 7%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 262.6
Score range: 62–379
Upset likelihood: 4%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 295 vs event baseline 148.5.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

568.8Season APEX215.6

77Auto10.5

206.3Teleop48

56.3Endgame21.9

41Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	73	1
teleop	96	23
endgame	86	16
foul	0	0
total	255	40

Result

Final score

255 – 40

Prediction correct · off by 73.3 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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