Qualification · Qualification 42

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

46.16 – 103.71

33%67%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

74 – 83

Prediction correct · off by 24.3 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 249.4 ±15.3

5665FENERBAHÇE DOGUS SPARC

Season APEX 148.2Event APEX 46.32Rank 20Record 4-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

10598TADroid

Season APEX 58Event APEX -19.75Rank 35Record 3-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

8795The Chaotics

Provisional

Season APEX 43.2Event APEX 19.59Rank 26Record 4-5-0Status provisionalConfidence 74

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 193.4 ±18.1

10576ASHINA

Season APEX 39.6Event APEX 32.33Rank 23Record 4-5-0Status establishedConfidence 76

8747BLACK SEA ROBOTICS

Provisional

Season APEX 21.6Event APEX -0.3Rank 19Record 5-4-0Status provisionalConfidence 71

9025Mechameleons

Season APEX 132.2Event APEX 71.68Rank 6Record 8-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 5665, 10598, 8795

/ 100 compat

Projected

46.2 pts

~1.0 RP (regional)

Teams: 5665, 10598, 8795

Auto

0.4 1%

Teleop

36.9 70%

Endgame

15.6 29%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 30%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 10576, 8747, 9025

/ 100 compat

Projected

103.7 pts

~1.7 RP (regional)

Teams: 10576, 8747, 9025

Auto

19.7 20%

Teleop

30.0 30%

Endgame

48.9 50%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 30%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 1 · Blue 1.74

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score46.2pts

Blue projected score103.7pts

Red win probability33%

Event bonus sample162alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 30%, blue 35%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -57.5
Score range: 19–131
Upset likelihood: 33%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Close match

Combined score 157 vs event baseline 148.4.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

249.4Season APEX193.4

0.4Auto19.7

36.9Teleop30

15.6Endgame48.9

21Consistency82

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	35	22
teleop	17	41
endgame	17	20
foul	5	0
total	74	83

Result

Final score

74 – 83

Prediction correct · off by 24.3 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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