Qualification · Qualification 41

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

56.97 – 33.25

57%43%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

56 – 103

Prediction missed · off by 35.4 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 153.6 ±18.8

11120Frostbite Robotics

Provisional

Season APEX 70.7Event APEX 35.71Rank 10Record 6-3-0Status provisionalConfidence 74

10947Antioch Rising

Provisional

Season APEX 40.8Event APEX 9.62Rank 30Record 3-6-0Status provisionalConfidence 74

10234TEDRA

Season APEX 42.1Event APEX 11.64Rank 43Record 2-6-0Status establishedConfidence 94

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 174.9 ±22

11240Rotatech

Provisional

Season APEX 58.7Event APEX 24.86Rank 29Record 3-6-0Status provisionalConfidence 71

10205MAGNETAR

Provisional

Season APEX 36Event APEX 3.36Rank 38Record 3-6-0Status provisionalConfidence 71

10959ORHANIYE R SPORTS

Provisional

Season APEX 80.2Event APEX 5.03Rank 13Record 5-4-0Status provisionalConfidence 73

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 11120, 10947, 10234

/ 100 compat

Projected

57 pts

~1.6 RP (regional)

Teams: 11120, 10947, 10234

Auto

17.3 40%

Teleop

17.2 40%

Endgame

8.5 20%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 38%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 11240, 10205, 10959

/ 100 compat

Projected

33.3 pts

~1.3 RP (regional)

Teams: 11240, 10205, 10959

Auto

15.5 43%

Teleop

8.8 25%

Endgame

11.5 32%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage
· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 38%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 1.57 · Blue 1.32

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score57pts

Blue projected score33.3pts

Red win probability57%

Event bonus sample162alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 38%, blue 43%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 23.7
Score range: 6–84
Upset likelihood: 43%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 159 vs event baseline 150.1.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

153.6Season APEX174.9

17.3Auto15.5

17.2Teleop8.8

8.5Endgame11.5

61Consistency106

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	17	30
teleop	8	43
endgame	31	30
foul	0	0
total	56	103

Result

Final score

56 – 103

Prediction missed · off by 35.4 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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