Qualification · Qualification 40

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

47.77 – 115.96

30%70%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

221 – 75

Prediction missed · off by 107.1 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 255.2 ±16.6

8209SEZMECH

Provisional

Season APEX 73.4Event APEX 12.18Rank 15Record 5-4-0Status provisionalConfidence 74

6948EAGLES

Season APEX 106.1Event APEX 39.63Rank 9Record 6-3-0Status establishedConfidence 97

9020MCT Galatasaray Robotics

Season APEX 75.7Event APEX -4.04Rank 42Record 2-7-0Status establishedConfidence 86

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 167.2 ±22

10185Nexify Robotics

Provisional

Season APEX 58.4Event APEX -2.78Rank 31Record 4-5-0Status provisionalConfidence 71

10132Kuanta Robotics

Provisional

Season APEX 60Event APEX 49.81Rank 27Record 3-6-0Status provisionalConfidence 71

9451Aydos

Provisional

Season APEX 48.8Event APEX 68.93Rank 16Record 5-4-0Status provisionalConfidence 74

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 8209, 6948, 9020

/ 100 compat

Projected

47.8 pts

~1.1 RP (regional)

Teams: 8209, 6948, 9020

Auto

14.8 33%

Teleop

22.2 50%

Endgame

7.8 17%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 40%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 10185, 10132, 9451

/ 100 compat

Projected

116 pts

~1.8 RP (regional)

Teams: 10185, 10132, 9451

Auto

22.9 20%

Teleop

52.2 45%

Endgame

41.4 36%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 40%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 1.05 · Blue 1.81

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score47.8pts

Blue projected score116pts

Red win probability30%

Event bonus sample162alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 40%, blue 36%

Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 3%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -68.2
Score range: 21–143
Upset likelihood: 30%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 296 vs event baseline 150.1.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

255.2Season APEX167.2

14.8Auto22.9

22.2Teleop52.2

7.8Endgame41.4

13Consistency46

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	47	20
teleop	130	37
endgame	44	18
foul	0	0
total	221	75

Result

Final score

221 – 75

Prediction missed · off by 107.1 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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