Qualification · Qualification 4

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

246.53 – 67.11

90%10%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

267 – 85

Prediction correct · off by 19.2 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 391.8 ±18.7

10131Royal Turtles

Season APEX 278.4Event APEX 208.1Rank 2Record 8-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

10999Cezeri Robotics

Provisional

Season APEX 40Event APEX 17.04Rank 37Record 3-6-0Status provisionalConfidence 71

8209SEZMECH

Provisional

Season APEX 73.4Event APEX 21.39Rank 15Record 5-4-0Status provisionalConfidence 74

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 297 ±16.4

9692Sigma

Season APEX 174.1Event APEX 61.89Rank 22Record 4-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

8056Laissez Faire

Season APEX 67.5Event APEX 24.76Rank 40Record 2-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

10953LYRON

Provisional

Season APEX 55.4Event APEX -19.54Rank 36Record 3-6-0Status provisionalConfidence 71

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 10131, 10999, 8209

/ 100 compat

Projected

246.5 pts

~2.3 RP (regional)

Teams: 10131, 10999, 8209

Auto

38.5 16%

Teleop

141.4 59%

Endgame

61.6 26%

Strengths

· 10131 anchors offense
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 41%

Supercharged: 4%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 9692, 8056, 10953

/ 100 compat

Projected

67.1 pts

~0.6 RP (regional)

Teams: 9692, 8056, 10953

Auto

17.9 28%

Teleop

32.0 51%

Endgame

13.2 21%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 41%

Supercharged: 4%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 2.28 · Blue 0.61

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score246.5pts

Blue projected score67.1pts

Red win probability90%

Event bonus sample162alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 41%, blue 38%

Supercharged bonusred 4%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 179.4
Score range: 35–279
Upset likelihood: 10%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 352 vs event baseline 175.3.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

391.8Season APEX297

38.5Auto17.9

141.4Teleop32

61.6Endgame13.2

42Consistency60

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	24	17
teleop	161	33
endgame	82	25
foul	0	10
total	267	85

Result

Final score

267 – 85

Prediction correct · off by 19.2 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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