Qualification · Qualification 39

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

74.02 – 175.09

22%78%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

110 – 352

Prediction correct · off by 106.4 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 176.5 ±17.7

9468Team Sirius

Season APEX 53.6Event APEX 5.1Rank 24Record 4-5-0Status establishedConfidence 92

8056Laissez Faire

Season APEX 67.5Event APEX 18.78Rank 40Record 2-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

9026Aero

Provisional

Season APEX 55.4Event APEX 50.14Rank 28Record 3-6-0Status provisionalConfidence 71

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 460.7 ±13.5

6459AG Robotik

A+

Season APEX 325.3Event APEX 163.48Rank 1Record 9-0-0Status establishedConfidence 100

9231Haydarpasa Panthers

Season APEX 86.8Event APEX 20.83Rank 25Record 4-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

10383Robistim

Season APEX 48.6Event APEX -9.22Rank 32Record 3-6-0Status establishedConfidence 91

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 9468, 8056, 9026

/ 100 compat

Projected

74 pts

~0.9 RP (regional)

Teams: 9468, 8056, 9026

Auto

15.1 22%

Teleop

31.3 45%

Endgame

22.7 33%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 46%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 6459, 9231, 10383

/ 100 compat

Projected

175.1 pts

~2.0 RP (regional)

Teams: 6459, 9231, 10383

Auto

16.5 11%

Teleop

85.0 55%

Endgame

54.3 35%

Strengths

· 6459 anchors offense
· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 46%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 0.94 · Blue 1.99

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score74pts

Blue projected score175.1pts

Red win probability22%

Event bonus sample162alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 46%, blue 38%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 3%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -101.1
Score range: 47–202
Upset likelihood: 22%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 462 vs event baseline 148.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

176.5Season APEX460.7

15.1Auto16.5

31.3Teleop85

22.7Endgame54.3

55Consistency26

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	16	39
teleop	56	212
endgame	33	91
foul	5	10
total	110	352

Result

Final score

110 – 352

Prediction correct · off by 106.4 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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