Qualification · Qualification 38

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

396.08 – 68.55

98%2%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

429 – 73

Prediction correct · off by 18.7 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 616.6 ±15.5

8159Golden Horn

Season APEX 278.3Event APEX 173.23Rank 5Record 7-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

10131Royal Turtles

Season APEX 278.4Event APEX 193.66Rank 2Record 8-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5655KelRot

Provisional

Season APEX 59.9Event APEX 29.19Rank 33Record 3-6-0Status provisionalConfidence 71

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 156.5 ±15.3

6038ITOBOT

Season APEX 27.3Event APEX 8.37Rank 18Record 4-5-0Status establishedConfidence 76

7742Cosmos Robot Works

Season APEX 59.2Event APEX 22.15Rank 12Record 6-3-0Status establishedConfidence 97

8153Tech4Peace

Season APEX 70Event APEX 38.03Rank 21Record 4-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 8159, 10131, 5655

/ 100 compat

Projected

396.1 pts

~2.6 RP (regional)

Teams: 8159, 10131, 5655

Auto

67.5 17%

Teleop

238.4 61%

Endgame

81.8 21%

Strengths

· 10131 anchors offense
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 49%

Supercharged: 12%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 6038, 7742, 8153

/ 100 compat

Projected

68.6 pts

~0.4 RP (regional)

Teams: 6038, 7742, 8153

Auto

13.6 21%

Teleop

53.4 84%

Endgame

-3.5 0%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 49%

Supercharged: 12%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 2.59 · Blue 0.44

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score396.1pts

Blue projected score68.6pts

Red win probability98%

Event bonus sample162alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 49%, blue 36%

Supercharged bonusred 12%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 327.5
Score range: 43–422
Upset likelihood: 2%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 502 vs event baseline 145.2.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

616.6Season APEX156.5

67.5Auto13.6

238.4Teleop53.4

81.8Endgame-3.5

84Consistency60

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	80	15
teleop	264	19
endgame	85	19
foul	0	20
total	429	73

Result

Final score

429 – 73

Prediction correct · off by 18.7 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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