Qualification · Qualification 37

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

268.65 – 129.37

85%15%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

322 – 151

Prediction correct · off by 37.5 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 481.5 ±16

11000NEOCHIRON

Season APEX 99.5Event APEX 41.27Rank 17Record 5-4-0Status establishedConfidence 97

7466Cymurghs

Provisional

Season APEX 118.8Event APEX 61.73Rank 14Record 5-4-0Status provisionalConfidence 74

8595This Is How We Play

Season APEX 263.2Event APEX 165.65Rank 3Record 8-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 227.7 ±19

9028GFORCE

Provisional

Season APEX 50.9Event APEX 44.14Rank 39Record 2-7-0Status provisionalConfidence 74

10953LYRON

Provisional

Season APEX 55.4Event APEX -12.64Rank 36Record 3-6-0Status provisionalConfidence 71

8806Our Lady of Providence Dream League

Season APEX 121.4Event APEX 97.87Rank 8Record 6-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 11000, 7466, 8595

/ 100 compat

Projected

268.7 pts

~2.2 RP (regional)

Teams: 11000, 7466, 8595

Auto

43.6 16%

Teleop

157.3 59%

Endgame

66.6 25%

Strengths

· 8595 anchors offense
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 43%

Supercharged: 4%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 9028, 10953, 8806

/ 100 compat

Projected

129.4 pts

~0.8 RP (regional)

Teams: 9028, 10953, 8806

Auto

28.5 23%

Teleop

63.9 52%

Endgame

29.9 24%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 43%

Supercharged: 4%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 2.19 · Blue 0.8

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score268.7pts

Blue projected score129.4pts

Red win probability85%

Event bonus sample162alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 43%, blue 45%

Supercharged bonusred 4%, blue 3%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 139.3
Score range: 103–295
Upset likelihood: 15%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-16
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 473 vs event baseline 142.7.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

481.5Season APEX227.7

43.6Auto28.5

157.3Teleop63.9

66.6Endgame29.9

11Consistency59

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	54	29
teleop	185	68
endgame	68	54
foul	15	0
total	322	151

Result

Final score

322 – 151

Prediction correct · off by 37.5 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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