Qualification · Qualification 36

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

32.3 – 97.49

31%69%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

26 – 75

Prediction correct · off by 14.4 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 167.5 ±19.4

10959ORHANIYE R SPORTS

Provisional

Season APEX 80.2Event APEX 8.21Rank 13Record 5-4-0Status provisionalConfidence 73

8747BLACK SEA ROBOTICS

Provisional

Season APEX 21.6Event APEX 7.19Rank 19Record 5-4-0Status provisionalConfidence 71

10502HARPIA ROBOTICS

Season APEX 65.7Event APEX 16.9Rank 34Record 3-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 235.6 ±18.7

7086IOROBOT

Provisional

Season APEX 18.3Event APEX 14.4Rank 41Record 3-6-0Status provisionalConfidence 71

8795The Chaotics

Provisional

Season APEX 43.2Event APEX 29.64Rank 26Record 4-5-0Status provisionalConfidence 74

9692Sigma

Season APEX 174.1Event APEX 53.45Rank 22Record 4-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 10959, 8747, 10502

/ 100 compat

Projected

32.3 pts

~1.0 RP (regional)

Teams: 10959, 8747, 10502

Auto

6.7 35%

Teleop

7.8 41%

Endgame

4.5 24%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 35%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 7086, 8795, 9692

/ 100 compat

Projected

97.5 pts

~1.7 RP (regional)

Teams: 7086, 8795, 9692

Auto

12.0 14%

Teleop

50.5 58%

Endgame

25.0 29%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 35%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 1.02 · Blue 1.7

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score32.3pts

Blue projected score97.5pts

Red win probability31%

Event bonus sample162alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 35%, blue 28%

Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -65.2
Score range: 6–123
Upset likelihood: 31%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 101 vs event baseline 145.3.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

167.5Season APEX235.6

6.7Auto12

7.8Teleop50.5

4.5Endgame25

157Consistency142

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	17	20
teleop	1	34
endgame	3	21
foul	5	0
total	26	75

Result

Final score

26 – 75

Prediction correct · off by 14.4 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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