Qualification · Qualification 34

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

0 – 48.67

25%75%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

80 – 67

Prediction missed · off by 49.2 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 136.5 ±20

10205MAGNETAR

Provisional

Season APEX 36Event APEX -17.65Rank 38Record 3-6-0Status provisionalConfidence 71

10234TEDRA

Season APEX 42.1Event APEX -5.41Rank 43Record 2-6-0Status establishedConfidence 94

10185Nexify Robotics

Provisional

Season APEX 58.4Event APEX -14.93Rank 31Record 4-5-0Status provisionalConfidence 71

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 216.5 ±15

8056Laissez Faire

Season APEX 67.5Event APEX 17.97Rank 40Record 2-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

9043Valkyrie

Season APEX 73.3Event APEX 33.32Rank 11Record 5-4-0Status establishedConfidence 89

9020MCT Galatasaray Robotics

Season APEX 75.7Event APEX -2.62Rank 42Record 2-7-0Status establishedConfidence 86

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 10205, 10234, 10185

/ 100 compat

Projected

-38 pts

~0.8 RP (regional)

Teams: 10205, 10234, 10185

Auto

15.5 0%

Teleop

-39.0 100%

Endgame

-9.9 30%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 28%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 8056, 9043, 9020

/ 100 compat

Projected

48.7 pts

~2.0 RP (regional)

Teams: 8056, 9043, 9020

Auto

21.6 61%

Teleop

8.7 25%

Endgame

4.9 14%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 28%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 0.83 · Blue 1.97

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score-38pts

Blue projected score48.7pts

Red win probability25%

Event bonus sample162alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 28%, blue 43%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 3%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -48.7
Score range: -26–75
Upset likelihood: 25%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Combined score 147 vs event baseline 146.8.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

136.5Season APEX216.5

15.5Auto21.6

-39Teleop8.7

-9.9Endgame4.9

138Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	17	20
teleop	29	33
endgame	34	14
foul	0	0
total	80	67

Result

Final score

80 – 67

Prediction missed · off by 49.2 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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