Qualification · Qualification 33

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

242.93 – 269.33

42%58%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

315 – 129

Prediction missed · off by 106.2 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 373.4 ±18.1

10576ASHINA

Season APEX 39.6Event APEX 33.02Rank 23Record 4-5-0Status establishedConfidence 76

10131Royal Turtles

Season APEX 278.4Event APEX 173.49Rank 2Record 8-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

9026Aero

Provisional

Season APEX 55.4Event APEX 36.42Rank 28Record 3-6-0Status provisionalConfidence 71

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 405.3 ±16.2

9468Team Sirius

Season APEX 53.6Event APEX 35.38Rank 24Record 4-5-0Status establishedConfidence 92

8159Golden Horn

Season APEX 278.3Event APEX 194.52Rank 5Record 7-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

8209SEZMECH

Provisional

Season APEX 73.4Event APEX 39.43Rank 15Record 5-4-0Status provisionalConfidence 74

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 10576, 10131, 9026

/ 100 compat

Projected

242.9 pts

~1.4 RP (regional)

Teams: 10576, 10131, 9026

Auto

13.2 6%

Teleop

157.9 66%

Endgame

66.9 28%

Strengths

· 10131 anchors offense
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 46%

Supercharged: 4%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 9468, 8159, 8209

/ 100 compat

Projected

269.3 pts

~1.7 RP (regional)

Teams: 9468, 8159, 8209

Auto

57.9 22%

Teleop

151.9 59%

Endgame

48.4 19%

Strengths

· 8159 anchors offense
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 46%

Supercharged: 4%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 1.36 · Blue 1.7

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score242.9pts

Blue projected score269.3pts

Red win probability42%

Event bonus sample162alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 46%, blue 48%

Supercharged bonusred 4%, blue 4%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -26.4
Score range: 217–295
Upset likelihood: 42%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

High scoring

Combined score 444 vs event baseline 144.5.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

373.4Season APEX405.3

13.2Auto57.9

157.9Teleop151.9

66.9Endgame48.4

77Consistency66

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	47	55
teleop	144	64
endgame	119	0
foul	5	10
total	315	129

Result

Final score

315 – 129

Prediction missed · off by 106.2 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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