Qualification · Qualification 32

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

48.09 – 171.67

18%82%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

55 – 72

Prediction correct · off by 53.3 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 214.8 ±20

10953LYRON

Provisional

Season APEX 55.4Event APEX -13.79Rank 36Record 3-6-0Status provisionalConfidence 71

5655KelRot

Provisional

Season APEX 59.9Event APEX 33.06Rank 33Record 3-6-0Status provisionalConfidence 71

11000NEOCHIRON

Season APEX 99.5Event APEX 28.82Rank 17Record 5-4-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 299.6 ±16.2

10383Robistim

Season APEX 48.6Event APEX 10.28Rank 32Record 3-6-0Status establishedConfidence 91

9025Mechameleons

Season APEX 132.2Event APEX 85.31Rank 6Record 8-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

7466Cymurghs

Provisional

Season APEX 118.8Event APEX 76.08Rank 14Record 5-4-0Status provisionalConfidence 74

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 10953, 5655, 11000

/ 100 compat

Projected

48.1 pts

~0.8 RP (regional)

Teams: 10953, 5655, 11000

Auto

12.8 32%

Teleop

8.5 21%

Endgame

18.8 47%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage
· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 35%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 10383, 9025, 7466

/ 100 compat

Projected

171.7 pts

~2.1 RP (regional)

Teams: 10383, 9025, 7466

Auto

20.5 11%

Teleop

104.5 58%

Endgame

54.7 30%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 35%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 0.75 · Blue 2.09

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score48.1pts

Blue projected score171.7pts

Red win probability18%

Event bonus sample162alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 35%, blue 40%

Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -123.6
Score range: 22–198
Upset likelihood: 18%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 127 vs event baseline 147.1.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

214.8Season APEX299.6

12.8Auto20.5

8.5Teleop104.5

18.8Endgame54.7

66Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	19	16
teleop	20	7
endgame	11	49
foul	5	0
total	55	72

Result

Final score

55 – 72

Prediction correct · off by 53.3 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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