Qualification · Qualification 30

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

430.45 – 149.71

97%3%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

572 – 111

Prediction correct · off by 90.1 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 794.9 ±11.6

6459AG Robotik

A+

Season APEX 325.3Event APEX 143.47Rank 1Record 9-0-0Status establishedConfidence 100

8595This Is How We Play

Season APEX 263.2Event APEX 152.75Rank 3Record 8-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

11216FLAZIA ROBOTICS

Season APEX 206.4Event APEX 134.23Rank 4Record 7-2-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 284.2 ±15.6

9028GFORCE

Provisional

Season APEX 50.9Event APEX 43.47Rank 39Record 2-7-0Status provisionalConfidence 74

7742Cosmos Robot Works

Season APEX 59.2Event APEX 35.73Rank 12Record 6-3-0Status establishedConfidence 97

9692Sigma

Season APEX 174.1Event APEX 70.51Rank 22Record 4-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 6459, 8595, 11216

/ 100 compat

Projected

430.5 pts

~2.6 RP (regional)

Teams: 6459, 8595, 11216

Auto

64.1 15%

Teleop

271.1 63%

Endgame

93.1 22%

Strengths

· 8595 anchors offense
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 54%

Supercharged: 13%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 9028, 7742, 9692

/ 100 compat

Projected

149.7 pts

~0.5 RP (regional)

Teams: 9028, 7742, 9692

Auto

27.3 22%

Teleop

74.0 59%

Endgame

24.6 20%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 54%

Supercharged: 13%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 2.63 · Blue 0.47

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score430.5pts

Blue projected score149.7pts

Red win probability97%

Event bonus sample162alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 54%, blue 37%

Supercharged bonusred 13%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 280.7
Score range: 125–455
Upset likelihood: 3%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 683 vs event baseline 140.4.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

794.9Season APEX284.2

64.1Auto27.3

271.1Teleop74

93.1Endgame24.6

64Consistency121

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	91	29
teleop	339	56
endgame	137	11
foul	5	15
total	572	111

Result

Final score

572 – 111

Prediction correct · off by 90.1 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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