Qualification · Qualification 3

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

13.41 – 246.98

5%95%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

14 – 225

Prediction correct · off by 11.3 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 118.4 ±17.2

10598TADroid

Season APEX 58Event APEX 1.81Rank 35Record 3-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

10234TEDRA

Season APEX 42.1Event APEX -2.47Rank 43Record 2-6-0Status establishedConfidence 94

7086IOROBOT

Provisional

Season APEX 18.3Event APEX 14.07Rank 41Record 3-6-0Status provisionalConfidence 71

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 468 ±15.6

11000NEOCHIRON

Season APEX 99.5Event APEX 36.29Rank 17Record 5-4-0Status establishedConfidence 97

8795The Chaotics

Provisional

Season APEX 43.2Event APEX 26.01Rank 26Record 4-5-0Status provisionalConfidence 74

6459AG Robotik

A+

Season APEX 325.3Event APEX 184.68Rank 1Record 9-0-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 10598, 10234, 7086

/ 100 compat

Projected

13.4 pts

~0.4 RP (regional)

Teams: 10598, 10234, 7086

Auto

15.9 100%

Teleop

-10.9 0%

Endgame

4.5 47%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage
· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 24%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 11000, 8795, 6459

/ 100 compat

Projected

247 pts

~2.3 RP (regional)

Teams: 11000, 8795, 6459

Auto

31.4 13%

Teleop

145.7 62%

Endgame

59.8 25%

Strengths

· 6459 anchors offense
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 24%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 0.39 · Blue 2.32

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score13.4pts

Blue projected score247pts

Red win probability5%

Event bonus sample162alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 24%, blue 38%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 3%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -233.6
Score range: -19–279
Upset likelihood: 5%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 239 vs event baseline 175.3.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

118.4Season APEX468

15.9Auto31.4

-10.9Teleop145.7

4.5Endgame59.8

69Consistency45

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	13	9
teleop	1	139
endgame	0	77
foul	0	0
total	14	225

Result

Final score

14 – 225

Prediction correct · off by 11.3 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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