Qualification · Qualification 28

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

52.41 – 228.31

10%90%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

102 – 274

Prediction correct · off by 47.6 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 189.6 ±19.2

11120Frostbite Robotics

Provisional

Season APEX 70.7Event APEX 31.46Rank 10Record 6-3-0Status provisionalConfidence 74

9020MCT Galatasaray Robotics

Season APEX 75.7Event APEX -1.98Rank 42Record 2-7-0Status establishedConfidence 86

8795The Chaotics

Provisional

Season APEX 43.2Event APEX 22.93Rank 26Record 4-5-0Status provisionalConfidence 74

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 457.8 ±12.9

10131Royal Turtles

Season APEX 278.4Event APEX 180Rank 2Record 8-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

9043Valkyrie

Season APEX 73.3Event APEX 20.93Rank 11Record 5-4-0Status establishedConfidence 89

6948EAGLES

Season APEX 106.1Event APEX 27.38Rank 9Record 6-3-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 11120, 9020, 8795

/ 100 compat

Projected

52.4 pts

~0.6 RP (regional)

Teams: 11120, 9020, 8795

Auto

3.3 5%

Teleop

31.1 50%

Endgame

28.4 45%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 36%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 10131, 9043, 6948

/ 100 compat

Projected

228.3 pts

~2.4 RP (regional)

Teams: 10131, 9043, 6948

Auto

29.1 13%

Teleop

144.6 65%

Endgame

50.2 22%

Strengths

· 10131 anchors offense
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage

RP bonus probability

Energized: 36%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 0.6 · Blue 2.43

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score52.4pts

Blue projected score228.3pts

Red win probability10%

Event bonus sample162alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 36%, blue 52%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 10%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -175.9
Score range: 27–253
Upset likelihood: 10%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 376 vs event baseline 140.7.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

189.6Season APEX457.8

3.3Auto29.1

31.1Teleop144.6

28.4Endgame50.2

4Consistency123

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	20	39
teleop	34	176
endgame	23	49
foul	25	10
total	102	274

Result

Final score

102 – 274

Prediction correct · off by 47.6 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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