Qualification · Qualification 26

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

48.65 – 69.18

44%56%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

61 – 137

Prediction correct · off by 40.1 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 126.9 ±20.5

7086IOROBOT

Provisional

Season APEX 18.3Event APEX 4Rank 41Record 3-6-0Status provisionalConfidence 71

10383Robistim

Season APEX 48.6Event APEX 22.33Rank 32Record 3-6-0Status establishedConfidence 91

10132Kuanta Robotics

Provisional

Season APEX 60Event APEX 22.32Rank 27Record 3-6-0Status provisionalConfidence 71

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 247.7 ±17.7

5655KelRot

Provisional

Season APEX 59.9Event APEX 6.49Rank 33Record 3-6-0Status provisionalConfidence 71

5665FENERBAHÇE DOGUS SPARC

Season APEX 148.2Event APEX 46.76Rank 20Record 4-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

10576ASHINA

Season APEX 39.6Event APEX 15.93Rank 23Record 4-5-0Status establishedConfidence 76

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 7086, 10383, 10132

/ 100 compat

Projected

48.7 pts

~1.2 RP (regional)

Teams: 7086, 10383, 10132

Auto

8.3 15%

Teleop

34.7 64%

Endgame

11.4 21%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 31%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 5655, 5665, 10576

/ 100 compat

Projected

69.2 pts

~1.5 RP (regional)

Teams: 5655, 5665, 10576

Auto

19.7 36%

Teleop

11.3 20%

Endgame

24.4 44%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage
· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 31%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 1.23 · Blue 1.53

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score48.7pts

Blue projected score69.2pts

Red win probability44%

Event bonus sample162alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 31%, blue 35%

Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 3%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -20.5
Score range: 23–95
Upset likelihood: 44%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 198 vs event baseline 143.1.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

126.9Season APEX247.7

8.3Auto19.7

34.7Teleop11.3

11.4Endgame24.4

47Consistency68

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	15	19
teleop	28	81
endgame	13	32
foul	5	5
total	61	137

Result

Final score

61 – 137

Prediction correct · off by 40.1 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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