Qualification · Qualification 23

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

175.75 – 165.45

53%47%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

165 – 153

Prediction correct · off by 11.6 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 294.3 ±16

8209SEZMECH

Provisional

Season APEX 73.4Event APEX 30.58Rank 15Record 5-4-0Status provisionalConfidence 74

11000NEOCHIRON

Season APEX 99.5Event APEX 42.99Rank 17Record 5-4-0Status establishedConfidence 97

8806Our Lady of Providence Dream League

Season APEX 121.4Event APEX 102.18Rank 8Record 6-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 313.9 ±17.7

10959ORHANIYE R SPORTS

Provisional

Season APEX 80.2Event APEX 22.79Rank 13Record 5-4-0Status provisionalConfidence 73

6038ITOBOT

Season APEX 27.3Event APEX 12.18Rank 18Record 4-5-0Status establishedConfidence 76

11216FLAZIA ROBOTICS

Season APEX 206.4Event APEX 130.48Rank 4Record 7-2-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 8209, 11000, 8806

/ 100 compat

Projected

175.8 pts

~1.6 RP (regional)

Teams: 8209, 11000, 8806

Auto

8.0 5%

Teleop

117.9 66%

Endgame

51.7 29%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 46%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 10959, 6038, 11216

/ 100 compat

Projected

165.5 pts

~1.5 RP (regional)

Teams: 10959, 6038, 11216

Auto

27.1 18%

Teleop

99.1 67%

Endgame

22.4 15%

Strengths

· 11216 anchors offense

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 46%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 1.57 · Blue 1.49

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score175.8pts

Blue projected score165.5pts

Red win probability53%

Event bonus sample162alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 46%, blue 49%

Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 4%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 10.3
Score range: 140–201
Upset likelihood: 47%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Combined score 318 vs event baseline 137.5.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

294.3Season APEX313.9

8Auto27.1

117.9Teleop99.1

51.7Endgame22.4

3Consistency117

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	44	39
teleop	84	89
endgame	27	20
foul	10	5
total	165	153

Result

Final score

165 – 153

Prediction correct · off by 11.6 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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