Qualification · Qualification 22

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

125.26 – 98.53

58%42%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

126 – 74

Prediction correct · off by 12.6 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 151.2 ±18.8

8795The Chaotics

Provisional

Season APEX 43.2Event APEX 40.57Rank 26Record 4-5-0Status provisionalConfidence 74

9451Aydos

Provisional

Season APEX 48.8Event APEX 66.02Rank 16Record 5-4-0Status provisionalConfidence 74

7742Cosmos Robot Works

Season APEX 59.2Event APEX 18.67Rank 12Record 6-3-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 499.9 ±15.5

9692Sigma

Season APEX 174.1Event APEX 54.77Rank 22Record 4-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

10185Nexify Robotics

Provisional

Season APEX 58.4Event APEX 5.25Rank 31Record 4-5-0Status provisionalConfidence 71

6941IronPulse Robotics

Season APEX 267.4Event APEX 38.51Rank 7Record 7-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 8795, 9451, 7742

/ 100 compat

Projected

125.3 pts

~1.6 RP (regional)

Teams: 8795, 9451, 7742

Auto

10.0 7%

Teleop

80.0 59%

Endgame

46.0 34%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 35%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 9692, 10185, 6941

/ 100 compat

Projected

98.5 pts

~1.2 RP (regional)

Teams: 9692, 10185, 6941

Auto

17.2 21%

Teleop

55.3 67%

Endgame

10.2 12%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 35%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 1.56 · Blue 1.24

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score125.3pts

Blue projected score98.5pts

Red win probability58%

Event bonus sample162alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 35%, blue 35%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 4%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 26.7
Score range: 74–150
Upset likelihood: 42%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Combined score 200 vs event baseline 139.3.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

151.2Season APEX499.9

10Auto17.2

80Teleop55.3

46Endgame10.2

2Consistency71

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	16	45
teleop	71	11
endgame	39	18
foul	0	0
total	126	74

Result

Final score

126 – 74

Prediction correct · off by 12.6 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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