Qualification · Qualification 21

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

157.38 – 53.56

78%22%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

20 – 56

Prediction missed · off by 69.9 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 174.2 ±17.7

10383Robistim

Season APEX 48.6Event APEX 56.64Rank 32Record 3-6-0Status establishedConfidence 91

5655KelRot

Provisional

Season APEX 59.9Event APEX 41.01Rank 33Record 3-6-0Status provisionalConfidence 71

10502HARPIA ROBOTICS

Season APEX 65.7Event APEX 59.73Rank 34Record 3-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 169.8 ±16.8

10234TEDRA

Season APEX 42.1Event APEX 34.29Rank 43Record 2-6-0Status establishedConfidence 94

6948EAGLES

Season APEX 106.1Event APEX 29.17Rank 9Record 6-3-0Status establishedConfidence 97

8747BLACK SEA ROBOTICS

Provisional

Season APEX 21.6Event APEX -9.9Rank 19Record 5-4-0Status provisionalConfidence 71

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 10383, 5655, 10502

/ 100 compat

Projected

157.4 pts

~2.0 RP (regional)

Teams: 10383, 5655, 10502

Auto

13.9 10%

Teleop

89.4 61%

Endgame

42.3 29%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage

RP bonus probability

Energized: 32%

Supercharged: 5%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 10234, 6948, 8747

/ 100 compat

Projected

53.6 pts

~0.8 RP (regional)

Teams: 10234, 6948, 8747

Auto

21.3 54%

Teleop

26.2 66%

Endgame

-7.7 0%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 32%

Supercharged: 5%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 1.96 · Blue 0.81

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score157.4pts

Blue projected score53.6pts

Red win probability78%

Event bonus sample162alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 32%, blue 33%

Supercharged bonusred 5%, blue 3%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 103.8
Score range: 28–183
Upset likelihood: 22%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Combined score 76 vs event baseline 144.3.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

174.2Season APEX169.8

13.9Auto21.3

89.4Teleop26.2

42.3Endgame-7.7

0Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	2	18
teleop	7	33
endgame	6	0
foul	5	5
total	20	56

Result

Final score

20 – 56

Prediction missed · off by 69.9 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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