Qualification · Qualification 20

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

181.04 – 58.07

82%18%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

307 – 107

Prediction correct · off by 87.4 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 464.6 ±15.6

7466Cymurghs

Provisional

Season APEX 118.8Event APEX 21.71Rank 14Record 5-4-0Status provisionalConfidence 74

8159Golden Horn

Season APEX 278.3Event APEX 160.59Rank 5Record 7-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

8056Laissez Faire

Season APEX 67.5Event APEX -1.26Rank 40Record 2-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 217.4 ±18.4

9028GFORCE

Provisional

Season APEX 50.9Event APEX 16.44Rank 39Record 2-7-0Status provisionalConfidence 74

5665FENERBAHÇE DOGUS SPARC

Season APEX 148.2Event APEX 40.97Rank 20Record 4-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

7086IOROBOT

Provisional

Season APEX 18.3Event APEX 0.66Rank 41Record 3-6-0Status provisionalConfidence 71

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 7466, 8159, 8056

/ 100 compat

Projected

181 pts

~2.2 RP (regional)

Teams: 7466, 8159, 8056

Auto

32.5 18%

Teleop

119.7 66%

Endgame

28.7 16%

Strengths

· 8159 anchors offense

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 48%

Supercharged: 4%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 9028, 5665, 7086

/ 100 compat

Projected

58.1 pts

~0.7 RP (regional)

Teams: 9028, 5665, 7086

Auto

24.2 49%

Teleop

15.4 31%

Endgame

10.1 20%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 48%

Supercharged: 4%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 2.18 · Blue 0.69

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score181pts

Blue projected score58.1pts

Red win probability82%

Event bonus sample162alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 48%, blue 30%

Supercharged bonusred 4%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 123
Score range: 33–206
Upset likelihood: 18%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 414 vs event baseline 141.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

464.6Season APEX217.4

32.5Auto24.2

119.7Teleop15.4

28.7Endgame10.1

0Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	65	39
teleop	165	37
endgame	72	11
foul	5	20
total	307	107

Result

Final score

307 – 107

Prediction correct · off by 87.4 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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