Qualification · Qualification 2

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

67.19 – 109.64

37%63%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

45 – 106

Prediction correct · off by 12.9 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 168.5 ±17.7

10205MAGNETAR

Provisional

Season APEX 36Event APEX 3.39Rank 38Record 3-6-0Status provisionalConfidence 71

9043Valkyrie

Season APEX 73.3Event APEX 21.79Rank 11Record 5-4-0Status establishedConfidence 89

7742Cosmos Robot Works

Season APEX 59.2Event APEX 42.01Rank 12Record 6-3-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 199.7 ±18.6

6038ITOBOT

Season APEX 27.3Event APEX 12.51Rank 18Record 4-5-0Status establishedConfidence 76

7466Cymurghs

Provisional

Season APEX 118.8Event APEX 77.47Rank 14Record 5-4-0Status provisionalConfidence 74

9468Team Sirius

Season APEX 53.6Event APEX 19.66Rank 24Record 4-5-0Status establishedConfidence 92

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 10205, 9043, 7742

/ 100 compat

Projected

67.2 pts

~1.2 RP (regional)

Teams: 10205, 9043, 7742

Auto

15.7 25%

Teleop

27.3 43%

Endgame

20.3 32%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack
· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 39%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 6038, 7466, 9468

/ 100 compat

Projected

109.6 pts

~1.7 RP (regional)

Teams: 6038, 7466, 9468

Auto

24.3 25%

Teleop

52.2 53%

Endgame

22.5 23%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 39%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 1.18 · Blue 1.73

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score67.2pts

Blue projected score109.6pts

Red win probability37%

Event bonus sample162alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 39%, blue 43%

Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -42.4
Score range: 35–142
Upset likelihood: 37%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 151 vs event baseline 175.3.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

168.5Season APEX199.7

15.7Auto24.3

27.3Teleop52.2

20.3Endgame22.5

65Consistency17

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	11	17
teleop	24	72
endgame	10	17
foul	0	0
total	45	106

Result

Final score

45 – 106

Prediction correct · off by 12.9 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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