Qualification · Qualification 18

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

120.58 – 137.77

45%55%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

182 – 217

Prediction correct · off by 70.3 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 301.4 ±18.4

10953LYRON

Provisional

Season APEX 55.4Event APEX 3.55Rank 36Record 3-6-0Status provisionalConfidence 71

11216FLAZIA ROBOTICS

Season APEX 206.4Event APEX 129.83Rank 4Record 7-2-0Status establishedConfidence 97

10576ASHINA

Season APEX 39.6Event APEX -12.8Rank 23Record 4-5-0Status establishedConfidence 76

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 469.3 ±16.2

9043Valkyrie

Season APEX 73.3Event APEX 21.75Rank 11Record 5-4-0Status establishedConfidence 89

6459AG Robotik

A+

Season APEX 325.3Event APEX 88.33Rank 1Record 9-0-0Status establishedConfidence 100

11120Frostbite Robotics

Provisional

Season APEX 70.7Event APEX 27.69Rank 10Record 6-3-0Status provisionalConfidence 74

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 10953, 11216, 10576

/ 100 compat

Projected

120.6 pts

~1.4 RP (regional)

Teams: 10953, 11216, 10576

Auto

16.7 14%

Teleop

75.8 62%

Endgame

29.0 24%

Strengths

· 11216 anchors offense

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage

RP bonus probability

Energized: 41%

Supercharged: 4%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 9043, 6459, 11120

/ 100 compat

Projected

137.8 pts

~1.7 RP (regional)

Teams: 9043, 6459, 11120

Auto

29.1 22%

Teleop

71.7 55%

Endgame

28.7 22%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 41%

Supercharged: 4%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 1.36 · Blue 1.68

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score120.6pts

Blue projected score137.8pts

Red win probability45%

Event bonus sample162alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 41%, blue 50%

Supercharged bonusred 4%, blue 5%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -17.2
Score range: 97–162
Upset likelihood: 45%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 399 vs event baseline 133.1.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

301.4Season APEX469.3

16.7Auto29.1

75.8Teleop71.7

29Endgame28.7

0Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	32	50
teleop	94	98
endgame	56	39
foul	0	30
total	182	217

Result

Final score

182 – 217

Prediction correct · off by 70.3 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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