Qualification · Qualification 17

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

205.08 – 94.77

80%20%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

176 – 189

Prediction missed · off by 61.7 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 288.4 ±16

10959ORHANIYE R SPORTS

Provisional

Season APEX 80.2Event APEX 43.67Rank 13Record 5-4-0Status provisionalConfidence 73

8806Our Lady of Providence Dream League

Season APEX 121.4Event APEX 134.41Rank 8Record 6-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

9231Haydarpasa Panthers

Season APEX 86.8Event APEX 27Rank 25Record 4-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 231.4 ±16.4

7742Cosmos Robot Works

Season APEX 59.2Event APEX -2.05Rank 12Record 6-3-0Status establishedConfidence 97

9025Mechameleons

Season APEX 132.2Event APEX 47.65Rank 6Record 8-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

10999Cezeri Robotics

Provisional

Season APEX 40Event APEX 49.17Rank 37Record 3-6-0Status provisionalConfidence 71

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 10959, 8806, 9231

/ 100 compat

Projected

205.1 pts

~2.1 RP (regional)

Teams: 10959, 8806, 9231

Auto

40.3 22%

Teleop

117.1 63%

Endgame

27.1 15%

Strengths

· 8806 anchors offense
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage

RP bonus probability

Energized: 48%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 7742, 9025, 10999

/ 100 compat

Projected

94.8 pts

~0.8 RP (regional)

Teams: 7742, 9025, 10999

Auto

9.3 9%

Teleop

52.3 53%

Endgame

36.4 37%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 48%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 2.13 · Blue 0.81

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score205.1pts

Blue projected score94.8pts

Red win probability80%

Event bonus sample162alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 48%, blue 36%

Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 110.3
Score range: 72–228
Upset likelihood: 20%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

High scoring

Combined score 365 vs event baseline 130.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

288.4Season APEX231.4

40.3Auto9.3

117.1Teleop52.3

27.1Endgame36.4

0Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	18	37
teleop	88	93
endgame	65	59
foul	5	0
total	176	189

Result

Final score

176 – 189

Prediction missed · off by 61.7 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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