Qualification · Qualification 15

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

108.4 – 70.89

61%39%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

50 – 44

Prediction correct · off by 42.6 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 180.2 ±18.8

9451Aydos

Provisional

Season APEX 48.8Event APEX 60.61Rank 16Record 5-4-0Status provisionalConfidence 74

8209SEZMECH

Provisional

Season APEX 73.4Event APEX 65.52Rank 15Record 5-4-0Status provisionalConfidence 74

10598TADroid

Season APEX 58Event APEX -17.73Rank 35Record 3-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 149.5 ±20.5

9468Team Sirius

Season APEX 53.6Event APEX 35.14Rank 24Record 4-5-0Status establishedConfidence 92

5655KelRot

Provisional

Season APEX 59.9Event APEX 24.64Rank 33Record 3-6-0Status provisionalConfidence 71

10205MAGNETAR

Provisional

Season APEX 36Event APEX 11.11Rank 38Record 3-6-0Status provisionalConfidence 71

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 9451, 8209, 10598

/ 100 compat

Projected

108.4 pts

~1.6 RP (regional)

Teams: 9451, 8209, 10598

Auto

9.2 8%

Teleop

61.7 55%

Endgame

41.8 37%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage

RP bonus probability

Energized: 35%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 9468, 5655, 10205

/ 100 compat

Projected

70.9 pts

~1.2 RP (regional)

Teams: 9468, 5655, 10205

Auto

13.7 20%

Teleop

42.0 62%

Endgame

12.0 18%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 35%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 1.62 · Blue 1.17

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score108.4pts

Blue projected score70.9pts

Red win probability61%

Event bonus sample162alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 35%, blue 35%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 3%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 37.5
Score range: 46–133
Upset likelihood: 39%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Close match

Combined score 94 vs event baseline 139.9.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

180.2Season APEX149.5

9.2Auto13.7

61.7Teleop42

41.8Endgame12

0Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	12	15
teleop	20	24
endgame	18	5
foul	0	0
total	50	44

Result

Final score

50 – 44

Prediction correct · off by 42.6 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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