Qualification · Qualification 14

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

129.67 – 103.6

58%42%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

296 – 60

Prediction correct · off by 105 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 397 ±12.9

10383Robistim

Season APEX 48.6Event APEX 7.83Rank 32Record 3-6-0Status establishedConfidence 91

10131Royal Turtles

Season APEX 278.4Event APEX 89.73Rank 2Record 8-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

8153Tech4Peace

Season APEX 70Event APEX 32.11Rank 21Record 4-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 115.7 ±21.4

8795The Chaotics

Provisional

Season APEX 43.2Event APEX 63.66Rank 26Record 4-5-0Status provisionalConfidence 74

9028GFORCE

Provisional

Season APEX 50.9Event APEX 32.11Rank 39Record 2-7-0Status provisionalConfidence 74

8747BLACK SEA ROBOTICS

Provisional

Season APEX 21.6Event APEX 7.83Rank 19Record 5-4-0Status provisionalConfidence 71

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 10383, 10131, 8153

/ 100 compat

Projected

129.7 pts

~1.6 RP (regional)

Teams: 10383, 10131, 8153

Auto

17.3 14%

Teleop

68.3 56%

Endgame

37.4 30%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage

RP bonus probability

Energized: 38%

Supercharged: 4%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 8795, 9028, 8747

/ 100 compat

Projected

103.6 pts

~1.2 RP (regional)

Teams: 8795, 9028, 8747

Auto

6.1 6%

Teleop

57.9 57%

Endgame

37.8 37%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage

RP bonus probability

Energized: 38%

Supercharged: 4%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 1.6 · Blue 1.2

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score129.7pts

Blue projected score103.6pts

Red win probability58%

Event bonus sample162alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 38%, blue 32%

Supercharged bonusred 4%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 26.1
Score range: 79–155
Upset likelihood: 42%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 356 vs event baseline 137.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

397Season APEX115.7

17.3Auto6.1

68.3Teleop57.9

37.4Endgame37.8

0Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	22	15
teleop	210	28
endgame	64	12
foul	0	5
total	296	60

Result

Final score

296 – 60

Prediction correct · off by 105 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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