Qualification · Qualification 13

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

151.13 – 113.18

62%38%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

100 – 176

Prediction missed · off by 57 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 224.1 ±18.1

7466Cymurghs

Provisional

Season APEX 118.8Event APEX 48.52Rank 14Record 5-4-0Status provisionalConfidence 74

10576ASHINA

Season APEX 39.6Event APEX 13.71Rank 23Record 4-5-0Status establishedConfidence 76

10502HARPIA ROBOTICS

Season APEX 65.7Event APEX 88.9Rank 34Record 3-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 392.3 ±19

8595This Is How We Play

Season APEX 263.2Event APEX 93.68Rank 3Record 8-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

11120Frostbite Robotics

Provisional

Season APEX 70.7Event APEX 5.79Rank 10Record 6-3-0Status provisionalConfidence 74

10185Nexify Robotics

Provisional

Season APEX 58.4Event APEX 13.71Rank 31Record 4-5-0Status provisionalConfidence 71

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 7466, 10576, 10502

/ 100 compat

Projected

151.1 pts

~1.6 RP (regional)

Teams: 7466, 10576, 10502

Auto

23.5 16%

Teleop

85.7 59%

Endgame

37.0 25%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 35%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 8595, 11120, 10185

/ 100 compat

Projected

113.2 pts

~1.2 RP (regional)

Teams: 8595, 11120, 10185

Auto

20.2 18%

Teleop

62.8 56%

Endgame

29.1 26%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 35%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 1.64 · Blue 1.24

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score151.1pts

Blue projected score113.2pts

Red win probability62%

Event bonus sample162alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 35%, blue 41%

Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 4%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 37.9
Score range: 88–176
Upset likelihood: 38%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 276 vs event baseline 136.9.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

224.1Season APEX392.3

23.5Auto20.2

85.7Teleop62.8

37Endgame29.1

0Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	11	38
teleop	41	101
endgame	38	37
foul	10	0
total	100	176

Result

Final score

100 – 176

Prediction missed · off by 57 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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