Qualification · Qualification 12

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

57.43 – 301.73

5%95%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

68 – 443

Prediction correct · off by 75.9 points

Limited current-season data (11 matches), wider uncertainty, lower confidence.

red allianceTotal Season APEX 251.6 ±16.8

11240Rotatech

Provisional

Season APEX 58.7Event APEX 9.14Rank 29Record 3-6-0Status provisionalConfidence 71

6948EAGLES

Season APEX 106.1Event APEX 14.86Rank 9Record 6-3-0Status establishedConfidence 97

9231Haydarpasa Panthers

Season APEX 86.8Event APEX 33.43Rank 25Record 4-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 606.1 ±11.6

11216FLAZIA ROBOTICS

Season APEX 206.4Event APEX 81.2Rank 4Record 7-2-0Status establishedConfidence 97

8806Our Lady of Providence Dream League

Season APEX 121.4Event APEX 113.49Rank 8Record 6-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

8159Golden Horn

Season APEX 278.3Event APEX 107.04Rank 5Record 7-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 11240, 6948, 9231

/ 100 compat

Projected

57.4 pts

~0.6 RP (regional)

Teams: 11240, 6948, 9231

Auto

12.9 26%

Teleop

22.9 47%

Endgame

13.1 27%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 42%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 11216, 8806, 8159

/ 100 compat

Projected

301.7 pts

~2.6 RP (regional)

Teams: 11216, 8806, 8159

Auto

49.9 17%

Teleop

179.8 61%

Endgame

66.9 23%

Strengths

· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 42%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 0.56 · Blue 2.64

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score57.4pts

Blue projected score301.7pts

Red win probability5%

Event bonus sample162alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 42%, blue 59%

Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 12%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -244.3
Score range: 34–325
Upset likelihood: 5%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 511 vs event baseline 126.1.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

251.6Season APEX606.1

12.9Auto49.9

22.9Teleop179.8

13.1Endgame66.9

0Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	18	77
teleop	26	298
endgame	9	68
foul	15	0
total	68	443

Result

Final score

68 – 443

Prediction correct · off by 75.9 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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