Qualification · Qualification 11

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

196.16 – 118.76

72%28%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

40 – 177

Prediction missed · off by 107.2 points

Limited current-season data (10 matches), wider uncertainty, lower confidence.

red allianceTotal Season APEX 251.2 ±15.1

6038ITOBOT

Season APEX 27.3Event APEX 35.3Rank 18Record 4-5-0Status establishedConfidence 76

9020MCT Galatasaray Robotics

Season APEX 75.7Event APEX 64.29Rank 42Record 2-7-0Status establishedConfidence 86

5665FENERBAHÇE DOGUS SPARC

Season APEX 148.2Event APEX 96.57Rank 20Record 4-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 447.6 ±15.6

10234TEDRA

Season APEX 42.1Event APEX 20.78Rank 43Record 2-6-0Status establishedConfidence 94

6459AG Robotik

A+

Season APEX 325.3Event APEX 69.3Rank 1Record 9-0-0Status establishedConfidence 100

10959ORHANIYE R SPORTS

Provisional

Season APEX 80.2Event APEX 28.68Rank 13Record 5-4-0Status provisionalConfidence 73

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 6038, 9020, 5665

/ 100 compat

Projected

196.2 pts

~1.9 RP (regional)

Teams: 6038, 9020, 5665

Auto

30.1 15%

Teleop

120.2 61%

Endgame

45.8 23%

Strengths

· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 36%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 10234, 6459, 10959

/ 100 compat

Projected

118.8 pts

~1.0 RP (regional)

Teams: 10234, 6459, 10959

Auto

6.5 5%

Teleop

72.9 62%

Endgame

39.0 33%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage

RP bonus probability

Energized: 36%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 1.85 · Blue 1.03

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score196.2pts

Blue projected score118.8pts

Red win probability72%

Event bonus sample162alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 36%, blue 43%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 3%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 77.4
Score range: 96–219
Upset likelihood: 28%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 217 vs event baseline 127.9.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

251.2Season APEX447.6

30.1Auto6.5

120.2Teleop72.9

45.8Endgame39

0Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	20	43
teleop	5	87
endgame	10	12
foul	5	35
total	40	177

Result

Final score

40 – 177

Prediction missed · off by 107.2 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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