Qualification · Qualification 10

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

167.14 – 95.11

71%29%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

134 – 160

Prediction missed · off by 49 points

Limited current-season data (9 matches), wider uncertainty, lower confidence.

red allianceTotal Season APEX 288.3 ±18

10947Antioch Rising

Provisional

Season APEX 40.8Event APEX 33.14Rank 30Record 3-6-0Status provisionalConfidence 74

9692Sigma

Season APEX 174.1Event APEX 46.52Rank 22Record 4-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

8209SEZMECH

Provisional

Season APEX 73.4Event APEX 87.48Rank 15Record 5-4-0Status provisionalConfidence 74

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 260.9 ±16.9

9026Aero

Provisional

Season APEX 55.4Event APEX 33.14Rank 28Record 3-6-0Status provisionalConfidence 71

9025Mechameleons

Season APEX 132.2Event APEX 37.18Rank 6Record 8-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

9043Valkyrie

Season APEX 73.3Event APEX 24.79Rank 11Record 5-4-0Status establishedConfidence 89

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 10947, 9692, 8209

/ 100 compat

Projected

167.1 pts

~1.9 RP (regional)

Teams: 10947, 9692, 8209

Auto

17.1 11%

Teleop

93.5 58%

Endgame

50.5 31%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage

RP bonus probability

Energized: 41%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 9026, 9025, 9043

/ 100 compat

Projected

95.1 pts

~1.1 RP (regional)

Teams: 9026, 9025, 9043

Auto

10.1 11%

Teleop

52.7 57%

Endgame

29.7 32%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage

RP bonus probability

Energized: 41%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 1.87 · Blue 1.13

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score167.1pts

Blue projected score95.1pts

Red win probability71%

Event bonus sample162alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 41%, blue 50%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 3%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 72
Score range: 72–190
Upset likelihood: 29%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Combined score 294 vs event baseline 125.8.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

288.3Season APEX260.9

17.1Auto10.1

93.5Teleop52.7

50.5Endgame29.7

0Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	6	33
teleop	83	72
endgame	40	50
foul	5	5
total	134	160

Result

Final score

134 – 160

Prediction missed · off by 49 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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