Final · Finals 3

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

367.84 – 390.2

43%57%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

428 – 299

Prediction missed · off by 75.7 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 611.6 ±11.6

8153Tech4Peace

Season APEX 70Event APEX 21.22Rank 21Record 4-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

10131Royal Turtles

Season APEX 278.4Event APEX 205.23Rank 2Record 8-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

8595This Is How We Play

Season APEX 263.2Event APEX 141.39Rank 3Record 8-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 605.1 ±15.1

11216FLAZIA ROBOTICS

Season APEX 206.4Event APEX 172.02Rank 4Record 7-2-0Status establishedConfidence 97

8209SEZMECH

Provisional

Season APEX 73.4Event APEX 29.32Rank 15Record 5-4-0Status provisionalConfidence 74

6459AG Robotik

A+

Season APEX 325.3Event APEX 188.86Rank 1Record 9-0-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 8153, 10131, 8595

/ 100 compat

Projected

367.8 pts

~1.4 RP (regional)

Teams: 8153, 10131, 8595

Auto

66.5 19%

Teleop

197.4 55%

Endgame

95.4 27%

Strengths

· 10131 anchors offense
· Well-balanced across phases
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 45%

Supercharged: 8%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 11216, 8209, 6459

/ 100 compat

Projected

390.2 pts

~1.7 RP (regional)

Teams: 11216, 8209, 6459

Auto

65.4 17%

Teleop

245.5 63%

Endgame

77.3 20%

Strengths

· 6459 anchors offense
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 45%

Supercharged: 8%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 1.42 · Blue 1.72

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score367.8pts

Blue projected score390.2pts

Red win probability43%

Event bonus sample162alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 45%, blue 50%

Supercharged bonusred 8%, blue 6%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -22.4
Score range: 337–421
Upset likelihood: 43%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Playoff

Combined score 727 vs event baseline 173.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

611.6Season APEX605.1

66.5Auto65.4

197.4Teleop245.5

95.4Endgame77.3

31Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	82	40
teleop	216	179
endgame	100	75
foul	30	5
total	428	299

Result

Final score

428 – 299

Prediction missed · off by 75.7 pts

Match videos

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