Final · Finals 2

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

364.7 – 367.44

49%51%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

390 – 295

Prediction missed · off by 48.9 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 611.6 ±11.6

8153Tech4Peace

Season APEX 70Event APEX 20.7Rank 21Record 4-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

10131Royal Turtles

Season APEX 278.4Event APEX 204.16Rank 2Record 8-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

8595This Is How We Play

Season APEX 263.2Event APEX 139.84Rank 3Record 8-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 589.7 ±12.2

11216FLAZIA ROBOTICS

Season APEX 206.4Event APEX 174.89Rank 4Record 7-2-0Status establishedConfidence 97

10598TADroid

Season APEX 58Event APEX 1.24Rank 35Record 3-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

6459AG Robotik

A+

Season APEX 325.3Event APEX 191.31Rank 1Record 9-0-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 8153, 10131, 8595

/ 100 compat

Projected

364.7 pts

~1.5 RP (regional)

Teams: 8153, 10131, 8595

Auto

65.0 18%

Teleop

198.8 56%

Endgame

91.9 26%

Strengths

· 10131 anchors offense
· Well-balanced across phases
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 45%

Supercharged: 8%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 11216, 10598, 6459

/ 100 compat

Projected

367.4 pts

~1.5 RP (regional)

Teams: 11216, 10598, 6459

Auto

51.3 14%

Teleop

228.5 63%

Endgame

84.8 23%

Strengths

· 6459 anchors offense
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 45%

Supercharged: 8%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 1.54 · Blue 1.52

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score364.7pts

Blue projected score367.4pts

Red win probability49%

Event bonus sample162alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 45%, blue 42%

Supercharged bonusred 8%, blue 6%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -2.7
Score range: 334–398
Upset likelihood: 49%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Playoff

Combined score 685 vs event baseline 170.8.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

611.6Season APEX589.7

65Auto51.3

198.8Teleop228.5

91.9Endgame84.8

30Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	77	81
teleop	187	150
endgame	121	59
foul	5	5
total	390	295

Result

Final score

390 – 295

Prediction missed · off by 48.9 pts

Match videos

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