Playoff · Playoff Match 9 R3

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

146.95 – 142

52%48%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

176 – 74

Prediction correct · off by 48.5 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 267.9 ±13.2

5665FENERBAHÇE DOGUS SPARC

Season APEX 148.2Event APEX 66.75Rank 6Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

11401Glorious Robotics

Season APEX 56.7Event APEX 30.76Rank 19Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 82

8169Aries

Season APEX 63Event APEX 49.44Rank 7Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 185.8 ±12.1

9079Mechanic storm

Season APEX 42.2Event APEX 24.48Rank 32Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 97

10428KAIZEN

Season APEX 65Event APEX 55.55Rank 10Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

5883Spice Gears

Season APEX 78.6Event APEX 61.97Rank 12Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 5665, 11401, 8169

/ 100 compat

Projected

147 pts

~1.6 RP (regional)

Teams: 5665, 11401, 8169

Auto

36.3 26%

Teleop

67.8 48%

Endgame

36.4 26%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 48%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 9079, 10428, 5883

/ 100 compat

Projected

142 pts

~1.4 RP (regional)

Teams: 9079, 10428, 5883

Auto

17.1 14%

Teleop

73.5 58%

Endgame

35.5 28%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 48%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 1.56 · Blue 1.4

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score147pts

Blue projected score142pts

Red win probability52%

Event bonus sample162alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 48%, blue 39%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 4.9
Score range: 119–170
Upset likelihood: 48%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Playoff

Standard match.

Combined score 250 vs event baseline 129.1.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

267.9Season APEX185.8

36.3Auto17.1

67.8Teleop73.5

36.4Endgame35.5

63Consistency7

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	44	31
teleop	96	34
endgame	31	4
foul	5	5
total	176	74

Result

Final score

176 – 74

Prediction correct · off by 48.5 pts

Match videos

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