Playoff · Playoff Match 8 R2

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

206.45 – 220.94

46%54%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

295 – 214

Prediction missed · off by 47.7 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 428.2 ±13.1

10213BALTA

Season APEX 217.9Event APEX 98.93Rank 5Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

11095The Flying Cats

Season APEX 52.6Event APEX 39Rank 16Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 80

6417Fridolins

Season APEX 157.7Event APEX 68.52Rank 2Record 11-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 298.3 ±13.6

6948EAGLES

Season APEX 106.1Event APEX 91.86Rank 9Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

10920F²

Season APEX 38.2Event APEX 13.11Rank 15Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 80

6431NoktaParantez

Season APEX 154Event APEX 115.97Rank 4Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 10213, 11095, 6417

/ 100 compat

Projected

206.5 pts

~1.4 RP (regional)

Teams: 10213, 11095, 6417

Auto

39.5 21%

Teleop

103.0 56%

Endgame

42.7 23%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 47%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 6948, 10920, 6431

/ 100 compat

Projected

220.9 pts

~1.7 RP (regional)

Teams: 6948, 10920, 6431

Auto

31.2 15%

Teleop

119.4 59%

Endgame

52.9 26%

Strengths

· 6431 anchors offense
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 47%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 1.42 · Blue 1.74

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score206.5pts

Blue projected score220.9pts

Red win probability46%

Event bonus sample162alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 47%, blue 61%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -14.5
Score range: 183–244
Upset likelihood: 46%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Playoff

Combined score 509 vs event baseline 127.4.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

428.2Season APEX298.3

39.5Auto31.2

103Teleop119.4

42.7Endgame52.9

1Consistency5

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	42	40
teleop	137	105
endgame	86	69
foul	30	0
total	295	214

Result

Final score

295 – 214

Prediction missed · off by 47.7 pts

Match videos

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