Playoff · Playoff Match 7 R2

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

287.4 – 142.01

86%14%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

261 – 175

Prediction correct · off by 29.7 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 426.3 ±12.4

8725MistyPanther

Season APEX 206.3Event APEX 141Rank 1Record 10-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

11166LionTECH

Season APEX 30.5Event APEX 11.29Rank 22Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 83

7632An Kang Robotics Maker

Season APEX 189.5Event APEX 135.11Rank 3Record 10-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 267.9 ±13.2

5665FENERBAHÇE DOGUS SPARC

Season APEX 148.2Event APEX 65.01Rank 6Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

11401Glorious Robotics

Season APEX 56.7Event APEX 29.11Rank 19Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 82

8169Aries

Season APEX 63Event APEX 47.89Rank 7Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 8725, 11166, 7632

/ 100 compat

Projected

287.4 pts

~2.3 RP (regional)

Teams: 8725, 11166, 7632

Auto

53.9 19%

Teleop

160.9 57%

Endgame

65.9 23%

Strengths

· 8725 anchors offense
· Well-balanced across phases
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 51%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 5665, 11401, 8169

/ 100 compat

Projected

142 pts

~0.8 RP (regional)

Teams: 5665, 11401, 8169

Auto

36.6 27%

Teleop

64.1 48%

Endgame

33.6 25%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 51%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 2.26 · Blue 0.81

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score287.4pts

Blue projected score142pts

Red win probability86%

Event bonus sample162alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 51%, blue 48%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 145.4
Score range: 119–310
Upset likelihood: 14%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Playoff

Combined score 436 vs event baseline 126.1.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

426.3Season APEX267.9

53.9Auto36.6

160.9Teleop64.1

65.9Endgame33.6

12Consistency56

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	51	35
teleop	151	88
endgame	49	52
foul	10	0
total	261	175

Result

Final score

261 – 175

Prediction correct · off by 29.7 pts

Match videos

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