Playoff · Playoff Match 5 R2

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

60.48 – 99.8

38%62%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

73 – 196

Prediction correct · off by 54.4 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 98.6 ±17.9

10914Team Variant

Season APEX 22.2Event APEX 12.65Rank 26Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 79

11164Byte Robotics

Season APEX 44.5Event APEX 20.11Rank 18Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 77

11255KAR Robotics

Season APEX 31.9Event APEX 27.72Rank 14Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 79

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 498.8 ±10.5

9583Lavender Robotics

Season APEX 34.5Event APEX -13.75Rank 33Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 100

9427iDeer

Season APEX 169Event APEX 61.17Rank 8Record 8-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

9001Delta Force

A+

Season APEX 295.3Event APEX 52.38Rank 11Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 10914, 11164, 11255

/ 100 compat

Projected

60.5 pts

~1.3 RP (regional)

Teams: 10914, 11164, 11255

Auto

24.1 37%

Teleop

26.4 40%

Endgame

14.7 23%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 46%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 9583, 9427, 9001

/ 100 compat

Projected

99.8 pts

~1.6 RP (regional)

Teams: 9583, 9427, 9001

Auto

33.4 37%

Teleop

44.4 49%

Endgame

12.7 14%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 46%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 1.26 · Blue 1.63

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score60.5pts

Blue projected score99.8pts

Red win probability38%

Event bonus sample162alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 46%, blue 35%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -39.3
Score range: 37–123
Upset likelihood: 38%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Playoff

Standard match.

Combined score 269 vs event baseline 126.7.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

98.6Season APEX498.8

24.1Auto33.4

26.4Teleop44.4

14.7Endgame12.7

0Consistency21

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	24	37
teleop	26	98
endgame	18	61
foul	5	0
total	73	196

Result

Final score

73 – 196

Prediction correct · off by 54.4 pts

Match videos

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