Playoff · Playoff Match 3 R1

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

180.17 – 61.45

81%19%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

158 – 50

Prediction correct · off by 16.8 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 424.2 ±13.9

10213BALTA

Season APEX 217.9Event APEX 100.05Rank 5Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

9610Blue Ivy

Season APEX 48.6Event APEX 9.86Rank 17Record 6-5-0Status establishedConfidence 77

6417Fridolins

Season APEX 157.7Event APEX 70.26Rank 2Record 11-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 251.9 ±12.2

6838X-SHARC

Season APEX 50.2Event APEX 33.35Rank 21Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

7672SCORPIONS ROBOTICS

Season APEX 59.5Event APEX 26.02Rank 13Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

6988ACI35

Season APEX 142.2Event APEX 2.08Rank 28Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 10213, 9610, 6417

/ 100 compat

Projected

180.2 pts

~2.2 RP (regional)

Teams: 10213, 9610, 6417

Auto

38.8 23%

Teleop

93.1 56%

Endgame

35.2 21%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 49%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 6838, 7672, 6988

/ 100 compat

Projected

61.5 pts

~0.8 RP (regional)

Teams: 6838, 7672, 6988

Auto

20.9 32%

Teleop

29.9 46%

Endgame

13.7 21%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage
· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 49%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 2.16 · Blue 0.79

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score180.2pts

Blue projected score61.5pts

Red win probability81%

Event bonus sample162alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 49%, blue 38%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 118.7
Score range: 38–203
Upset likelihood: 19%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Playoff

Standard match.

Combined score 208 vs event baseline 126.2.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

424.2Season APEX251.9

38.8Auto20.9

93.1Teleop29.9

35.2Endgame13.7

0Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	49	18
teleop	77	15
endgame	32	7
foul	0	10
total	158	50

Result

Final score

158 – 50

Prediction correct · off by 16.8 pts

Match videos

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