Playoff · Playoff Match 2 R1

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

132.15 – 106.59

58%42%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

175 – 79

Prediction correct · off by 35.2 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 267.9 ±13.2

5665FENERBAHÇE DOGUS SPARC

Season APEX 148.2Event APEX 61.43Rank 6Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

11401Glorious Robotics

Season APEX 56.7Event APEX 25.13Rank 19Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 82

8169Aries

Season APEX 63Event APEX 45.59Rank 7Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 498.8 ±10.5

9583Lavender Robotics

Season APEX 34.5Event APEX -11.87Rank 33Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 100

9427iDeer

Season APEX 169Event APEX 64.59Rank 8Record 8-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

9001Delta Force

A+

Season APEX 295.3Event APEX 53.87Rank 11Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 5665, 11401, 8169

/ 100 compat

Projected

132.2 pts

~1.7 RP (regional)

Teams: 5665, 11401, 8169

Auto

33.9 27%

Teleop

58.4 47%

Endgame

31.5 25%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 48%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 9583, 9427, 9001

/ 100 compat

Projected

106.6 pts

~1.2 RP (regional)

Teams: 9583, 9427, 9001

Auto

31.9 34%

Teleop

46.2 49%

Endgame

16.0 17%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 48%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 1.68 · Blue 1.23

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score132.2pts

Blue projected score106.6pts

Red win probability58%

Event bonus sample162alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 48%, blue 35%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 25.6
Score range: 84–155
Upset likelihood: 42%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Playoff

Combined score 254 vs event baseline 126.2.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

267.9Season APEX498.8

33.9Auto31.9

58.4Teleop46.2

31.5Endgame16

54Consistency18

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	49	40
teleop	83	39
endgame	38	0
foul	5	0
total	175	79

Result

Final score

175 – 79

Prediction correct · off by 35.2 pts

Match videos

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