Playoff · Playoff Match 1 R1

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

285 – 77.56

93%7%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

300 – 59

Prediction correct · off by 16.8 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 426.3 ±12.4

8725MistyPanther

Season APEX 206.3Event APEX 139.92Rank 1Record 10-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

11166LionTECH

Season APEX 30.5Event APEX 9.03Rank 22Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 83

7632An Kang Robotics Maker

Season APEX 189.5Event APEX 136.05Rank 3Record 10-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 85.5 ±17.9

10914Team Variant

Season APEX 22.2Event APEX 13.73Rank 26Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 79

5773YAFL Mechatronics

Season APEX 31.4Event APEX 35.39Rank 23Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 77

11255KAR Robotics

Season APEX 31.9Event APEX 28.44Rank 14Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 79

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 8725, 11166, 7632

/ 100 compat

Projected

285 pts

~2.4 RP (regional)

Teams: 8725, 11166, 7632

Auto

51.4 18%

Teleop

159.2 57%

Endgame

68.1 24%

Strengths

· 8725 anchors offense
· Well-balanced across phases
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 51%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 10914, 5773, 11255

/ 100 compat

Projected

77.6 pts

~0.7 RP (regional)

Teams: 10914, 5773, 11255

Auto

17.0 20%

Teleop

40.7 49%

Endgame

25.3 30%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack
· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 51%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 2.41 · Blue 0.65

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score285pts

Blue projected score77.6pts

Red win probability93%

Event bonus sample162alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 51%, blue 47%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 207.4
Score range: 55–308
Upset likelihood: 7%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Playoff

Combined score 359 vs event baseline 125.4.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

426.3Season APEX85.5

51.4Auto17

159.2Teleop40.7

68.1Endgame25.3

20Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	68	25
teleop	167	22
endgame	55	12
foul	10	0
total	300	59

Result

Final score

300 – 59

Prediction correct · off by 16.8 pts

Match videos

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