Playoff · Playoff Match 13 R5

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

222.65 – 130.4

76%24%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

241 – 291

Prediction missed · off by 89.5 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 428.2 ±13.1

10213BALTA

Season APEX 217.9Event APEX 104.27Rank 5Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

11095The Flying Cats

Season APEX 52.6Event APEX 44.69Rank 16Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 80

6417Fridolins

Season APEX 157.7Event APEX 73.69Rank 2Record 11-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 498.8 ±10.5

9583Lavender Robotics

Season APEX 34.5Event APEX -4.03Rank 33Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 100

9427iDeer

Season APEX 169Event APEX 71.62Rank 8Record 8-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

9001Delta Force

A+

Season APEX 295.3Event APEX 62.81Rank 11Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 10213, 11095, 6417

/ 100 compat

Projected

222.7 pts

~2.0 RP (regional)

Teams: 10213, 11095, 6417

Auto

35.5 18%

Teleop

109.7 54%

Endgame

56.5 28%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 47%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 9583, 9427, 9001

/ 100 compat

Projected

130.4 pts

~0.9 RP (regional)

Teams: 9583, 9427, 9001

Auto

39.4 32%

Teleop

57.9 47%

Endgame

25.4 21%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage
· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 47%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 2.03 · Blue 0.87

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score222.7pts

Blue projected score130.4pts

Red win probability76%

Event bonus sample162alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 47%, blue 35%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 92.3
Score range: 106–247
Upset likelihood: 24%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Playoff

Combined score 532 vs event baseline 131.5.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

428.2Season APEX498.8

35.5Auto39.4

109.7Teleop57.9

56.5Endgame25.4

0Consistency7

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	33	69
teleop	112	143
endgame	76	79
foul	20	0
total	241	291

Result

Final score

241 – 291

Prediction missed · off by 89.5 pts

Match videos

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