Playoff · Playoff Match 12 R4

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

128.06 – 151.05

43%57%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

146 – 142

Prediction missed · off by 13.5 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 498.8 ±10.5

9583Lavender Robotics

Season APEX 34.5Event APEX -4.8Rank 33Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 100

9427iDeer

Season APEX 169Event APEX 70.77Rank 8Record 8-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

9001Delta Force

A+

Season APEX 295.3Event APEX 62.09Rank 11Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 267.9 ±13.2

5665FENERBAHÇE DOGUS SPARC

Season APEX 148.2Event APEX 68.42Rank 6Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

11401Glorious Robotics

Season APEX 56.7Event APEX 32.11Rank 19Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 82

8169Aries

Season APEX 63Event APEX 50.52Rank 7Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 9583, 9427, 9001

/ 100 compat

Projected

128.1 pts

~1.2 RP (regional)

Teams: 9583, 9427, 9001

Auto

38.4 32%

Teleop

58.4 48%

Endgame

24.0 20%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage
· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 35%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 5665, 11401, 8169

/ 100 compat

Projected

151.1 pts

~1.7 RP (regional)

Teams: 5665, 11401, 8169

Auto

37.1 26%

Teleop

71.8 50%

Endgame

35.7 25%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 35%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 1.24 · Blue 1.67

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score128.1pts

Blue projected score151.1pts

Red win probability43%

Event bonus sample162alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 35%, blue 48%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -23
Score range: 104–175
Upset likelihood: 43%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Close match

Playoff

Combined score 288 vs event baseline 131.3.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

498.8Season APEX267.9

38.4Auto37.1

58.4Teleop71.8

24Endgame35.7

6Consistency68

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	46	36
teleop	55	74
endgame	35	32
foul	10	0
total	146	142

Result

Final score

146 – 142

Prediction missed · off by 13.5 pts

Match videos

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