Playoff · Playoff Match 10 R3

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

219.25 – 115.79

78%22%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

142 – 196

Prediction missed · off by 78.7 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 298.3 ±13.6

6948EAGLES

Season APEX 106.1Event APEX 91.26Rank 9Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

10920F²

Season APEX 38.2Event APEX 12.68Rank 15Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 80

6431NoktaParantez

Season APEX 154Event APEX 115.31Rank 4Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 498.8 ±10.5

9583Lavender Robotics

Season APEX 34.5Event APEX -8.63Rank 33Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 100

9427iDeer

Season APEX 169Event APEX 66.36Rank 8Record 8-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

9001Delta Force

A+

Season APEX 295.3Event APEX 58.06Rank 11Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 6948, 10920, 6431

/ 100 compat

Projected

219.3 pts

~2.2 RP (regional)

Teams: 6948, 10920, 6431

Auto

32.4 16%

Teleop

116.9 57%

Endgame

55.2 27%

Strengths

· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 61%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 9583, 9427, 9001

/ 100 compat

Projected

115.8 pts

~0.8 RP (regional)

Teams: 9583, 9427, 9001

Auto

33.7 31%

Teleop

53.6 50%

Endgame

20.7 19%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage
· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 61%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 2.22 · Blue 0.82

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score219.3pts

Blue projected score115.8pts

Red win probability78%

Event bonus sample162alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 61%, blue 35%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 103.5
Score range: 93–242
Upset likelihood: 22%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Playoff

Combined score 338 vs event baseline 129.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

298.3Season APEX498.8

32.4Auto33.7

116.9Teleop53.6

55.2Endgame20.7

9Consistency11

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	20	64
teleop	49	84
endgame	28	43
foul	45	5
total	142	196

Result

Final score

142 – 196

Prediction missed · off by 78.7 pts

Match videos

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