Qualification · Qualification 8

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

0 – 100.37

18%82%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

26 – 76

Prediction correct · off by 25.2 points

Limited current-season data (7 matches), wider uncertainty, lower confidence.

red allianceTotal Season APEX 118.6 ±17.1

7729RAMs

Season APEX 19.8Event APEX -4.47Rank 30Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 76

9610Blue Ivy

Season APEX 48.6Event APEX 14.67Rank 17Record 6-5-0Status establishedConfidence 77

6838X-SHARC

Season APEX 50.2Event APEX -29.67Rank 21Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 243.7 ±12.4

11166LionTECH

Season APEX 30.5Event APEX 30.22Rank 22Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 83

5665FENERBAHÇE DOGUS SPARC

Season APEX 148.2Event APEX 35.01Rank 6Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

10428KAIZEN

Season APEX 65Event APEX 35.14Rank 10Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 7729, 9610, 6838

/ 100 compat

Projected

-19.5 pts

~0.8 RP (regional)

Teams: 7729, 9610, 6838

Auto

6.2 0%

Teleop

-5.2 47%

Endgame

-12.1 100%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 34%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 11166, 5665, 10428

/ 100 compat

Projected

100.4 pts

~2.1 RP (regional)

Teams: 11166, 5665, 10428

Auto

23.8 23%

Teleop

60.0 57%

Endgame

21.9 21%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 34%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 0.75 · Blue 2.11

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score-19.5pts

Blue projected score100.4pts

Red win probability18%

Event bonus sample162alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 34%, blue 43%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -100.4
Score range: -21–121
Upset likelihood: 18%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 102 vs event baseline 114.8.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

118.6Season APEX243.7

6.2Auto23.8

-5.2Teleop60

-12.1Endgame21.9

0Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	9	9
teleop	14	21
endgame	3	36
foul	0	10
total	26	76

Result

Final score

26 – 76

Prediction correct · off by 25.2 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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