Qualification · Qualification 66

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

55.78 – 142.5

25%75%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

86 – 93

Prediction correct · off by 39.9 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 165.2 ±15.8

8169Aries

Season APEX 63Event APEX 42.88Rank 7Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 97

9468Team Sirius

Season APEX 53.6Event APEX 5.74Rank 29Record 4-5-0Status establishedConfidence 92

9610Blue Ivy

Season APEX 48.6Event APEX 7.16Rank 17Record 6-5-0Status establishedConfidence 77

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 254.8 ±16

11164Byte Robotics

Season APEX 44.5Event APEX 24.62Rank 18Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 77

11095The Flying Cats

Season APEX 52.6Event APEX 43.96Rank 16Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 80

6417Fridolins

Season APEX 157.7Event APEX 73.92Rank 2Record 11-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 8169, 9468, 9610

/ 100 compat

Projected

55.8 pts

~0.9 RP (regional)

Teams: 8169, 9468, 9610

Auto

21.1 42%

Teleop

20.5 40%

Endgame

9.1 18%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 41%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 11164, 11095, 6417

/ 100 compat

Projected

142.5 pts

~2.0 RP (regional)

Teams: 11164, 11095, 6417

Auto

29.6 25%

Teleop

56.1 47%

Endgame

33.9 28%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 41%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 0.95 · Blue 1.96

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score55.8pts

Blue projected score142.5pts

Red win probability25%

Event bonus sample162alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 41%, blue 42%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -86.7
Score range: 33–166
Upset likelihood: 25%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Close match

Combined score 179 vs event baseline 125.9.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

165.2Season APEX254.8

21.1Auto29.6

20.5Teleop56.1

9.1Endgame33.9

46Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	28	15
teleop	43	55
endgame	15	8
foul	0	15
total	86	93

Result

Final score

86 – 93

Prediction correct · off by 39.9 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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