Qualification · Qualification 63

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

97.32 – 95.65

51%49%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

114 – 136

Prediction missed · off by 28.5 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 365.9 ±16.4

11255KAR Robotics

Season APEX 31.9Event APEX 28.28Rank 14Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 79

9001Delta Force

A+

Season APEX 295.3Event APEX 52.58Rank 11Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

11365Ignite Robotics

Season APEX 38.7Event APEX 16.46Rank 24Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 76

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 178.6 ±15.3

6948EAGLES

Season APEX 106.1Event APEX 83.7Rank 9Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

10244WOLFS ROBOTICS

Season APEX 52.7Event APEX 9.79Rank 27Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

7729RAMs

Season APEX 19.8Event APEX 2.16Rank 30Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 76

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 11255, 9001, 11365

/ 100 compat

Projected

97.3 pts

~1.5 RP (regional)

Teams: 11255, 9001, 11365

Auto

26.2 28%

Teleop

53.3 56%

Endgame

15.7 16%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 44%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 6948, 10244, 7729

/ 100 compat

Projected

95.7 pts

~1.5 RP (regional)

Teams: 6948, 10244, 7729

Auto

12.5 13%

Teleop

53.8 57%

Endgame

27.7 29%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 44%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 1.49 · Blue 1.47

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score97.3pts

Blue projected score95.7pts

Red win probability51%

Event bonus sample162alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 44%, blue 44%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 1.7
Score range: 74–119
Upset likelihood: 49%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Combined score 250 vs event baseline 123.2.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

365.9Season APEX178.6

26.2Auto12.5

53.3Teleop53.8

15.7Endgame27.7

3Consistency3

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	45	25
teleop	63	66
endgame	6	45
foul	0	0
total	114	136

Result

Final score

114 – 136

Prediction missed · off by 28.5 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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