Qualification · Qualification 62

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

111.33 – 73.11

62%38%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

29 – 78

Prediction missed · off by 43.6 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 124.1 ±18.5

5773YAFL Mechatronics

Season APEX 31.4Event APEX 43.35Rank 23Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 77

11266Finaltech

Season APEX 36Event APEX 36.09Rank 25Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 76

11401Glorious Robotics

Season APEX 56.7Event APEX 31.89Rank 19Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 82

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 235.5 ±16

10261PYRONEERS

Season APEX 28.3Event APEX -0.99Rank 31Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 76

9427iDeer

Season APEX 169Event APEX 64.52Rank 8Record 8-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

10920F²

Season APEX 38.2Event APEX 9.58Rank 15Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 80

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 5773, 11266, 11401

/ 100 compat

Projected

111.3 pts

~1.7 RP (regional)

Teams: 5773, 11266, 11401

Auto

22.1 22%

Teleop

51.0 50%

Endgame

28.1 28%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 46%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 10261, 9427, 10920

/ 100 compat

Projected

73.1 pts

~1.2 RP (regional)

Teams: 10261, 9427, 10920

Auto

25.9 43%

Teleop

21.7 36%

Endgame

12.9 21%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 46%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 1.74 · Blue 1.21

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score111.3pts

Blue projected score73.1pts

Red win probability62%

Event bonus sample162alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 46%, blue 40%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 38.2
Score range: 51–133
Upset likelihood: 38%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 107 vs event baseline 124.3.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

124.1Season APEX235.5

22.1Auto25.9

51Teleop21.7

28.1Endgame12.9

14Consistency36

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	13	14
teleop	5	34
endgame	11	15
foul	0	15
total	29	78

Result

Final score

29 – 78

Prediction missed · off by 43.6 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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