Qualification · Qualification 61

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

19.66 – 95.11

28%72%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

33 – 88

Prediction correct · off by 10.2 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 138.3 ±12.4

9468Team Sirius

Season APEX 53.6Event APEX 4.74Rank 29Record 4-5-0Status establishedConfidence 92

9583Lavender Robotics

Season APEX 34.5Event APEX -17.59Rank 33Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 100

6838X-SHARC

Season APEX 50.2Event APEX 32.51Rank 21Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 165.6 ±15.8

5883Spice Gears

Season APEX 78.6Event APEX 70.51Rank 12Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

9441Aero Jr

Season APEX 56.5Event APEX 15.47Rank 20Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 76

11166LionTECH

Season APEX 30.5Event APEX 9.13Rank 22Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 83

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 9468, 9583, 6838

/ 100 compat

Projected

19.7 pts

~0.9 RP (regional)

Teams: 9468, 9583, 6838

Auto

20.1 84%

Teleop

7.2 30%

Endgame

-3.4 0%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 31%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 5883, 9441, 11166

/ 100 compat

Projected

95.1 pts

~1.9 RP (regional)

Teams: 5883, 9441, 11166

Auto

5.8 7%

Teleop

45.5 53%

Endgame

34.1 40%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 31%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 0.91 · Blue 1.86

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score19.7pts

Blue projected score95.1pts

Red win probability28%

Event bonus sample162alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 31%, blue 38%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -75.4
Score range: -3–118
Upset likelihood: 28%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 121 vs event baseline 125.4.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

138.3Season APEX165.6

20.1Auto5.8

7.2Teleop45.5

-3.4Endgame34.1

20Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	9	14
teleop	10	46
endgame	14	28
foul	0	0
total	33	88

Result

Final score

33 – 88

Prediction correct · off by 10.2 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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